Susan Deierling, Assoc. Broker
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Realty Executives Northern Arizona
Category Archives: The Economy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Non-Farm Payrolls report for December exceeded Wall Street’s expectations by 5,000 net new jobs, showing 155,000 positions created in December.
The December tally raised the economy’s 12-month total to 1.84 million net new jobs created nationwide. Jobs added in December mark the 27th consecutive month of job growth.
Job sectors showing the strongest growth to close out 2012 included:
- Health Care
- Drinking and Eating Establishments
Private-sector hiring is driving the jobs market, too. 168,000 new private sector jobs were added in December. Government jobs fell by thirteen thousand.
Monthly job creation has averaged +153,000 jobs since 12 months ago. It’s a fine measure of growth but economists believe it’s not enough job creation to significantly reduce the national unemployment rate. 14.4 percent of workers are categorized as under-employed.
December’s national unemployment rate was 7.8 percent, representing 4.8 million job seekers. This figure matched Wall Street’s expectations and was equal to November revised unemployment rate of 7.8 percent.
The improving jobs market and national unemployment rate make an impact on both mortgage rates and Cornville home prices.
Job creation suggests an expanding economy, which typically leads mortgage rates higher. In addition, with more employed persons nationwide, the potential home buyer pool grows larger, which introduces new demand to the housing market. With more demand, all things equal, home prices rise.
Job growth is one reason why home values climbed more than 5 percent in 2012, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency; and why the national housing supply would be exhausted in fewer than 5 months, at the current sales pace. Demand for homes is high and today’s low mortgage rates are extending buyer purchasing power in Arizona.
For home buyers, the expanding U.S. economy and steady job growth suggests that home prices may not rocket higher this year, but will continue to increase, little by little.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and its November 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls report, the U.S. economy added 146,000 net new jobs last month.
November’s job growth exceeded Wall Street expectations of 90,000 jobs added for the month, and was a small increase from October’s 138,000 jobs added.
Three job sectors in which employment rose in November include :
- Retail : 58,000 jobs added
- Business and Professional Services : 43,000 jobs added
- Healthcare : 20,000 jobs added
It appears that the effects of Hurricane Sandy were muted, although they may be temporarily overshadowed by seasonal factors.
After losing more than 7 million jobs in 2008 and 2009, the U.S. economy has since recovered more than 4.6 million jobs. Job growth has reached 26 consecutive months and is expected to remain consistent through 2013.
In addition, the BLS report showed the national unemployment rate dropping 0.2 percentage points in November to 7.7 percent. This is the lowest Unemployment Rate since January 2009.
Growing employment is a strong indicator of economic expansion, which traditionally leads to rising mortgage rates.
When mortgage people work, more income is earned and more taxes are paid. This often leads to higher levels of both consumer spending and government spending, both of which spur additional hiring and economic expansion.
When the economy is in expansion, equity markets often gain and bond markets often lose. When bond markets are in retreat, mortgage rates in Cottonwood rise. This relationship takes on added importance this week with the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled to adjourn.
The Non-Farm Payrolls Report is a top economic indicator and is a key part of economic and policy decision made Capitol Hill and within the Federal Reserve. As one example, recent Federal Reserve stimulus has been specifically aimed at lowering the national Unemployment Rate. As the economy improves and as jobs are regained, the Fed may be less likely to support low rates.
If you’re floating a mortgage rate, consider locking in. Rates can’t stay low forever.
Floating a mortgage rate? Consider getting locked Thursday.
ADP released its November 2012 Employment Report Wednesday in which the payroll-processing firm reported 118,000 new jobs created last month.
The company said the service sector created 114,000 new positions, the construction sector created 23,000 new positions, and goods-producing businesses created 4,000 new jobs, among others. There was a 16,000 decline in manufacturing employment.
ADP’s monthly Employment Report can influence mortgage rates. This is because it’s typically released during the same week as the Non-Farm Payrolls report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and can sometimes provide a preview.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report — more commonly called “the jobs report,” is a sector-by-sector breakdown of the U.S. employment situation, which includes changes in the national Unemployment Rate.
In a recovering economy, as jobs go, so goes the economy and, this month, the jobs forecast is clouded because of the effects of Hurricane Sandy.
In its Employment Report, ADP estimates that Hurricane Sandy reduced payrolls by 86,000 jobs across manufacturing, retail, leisure and hospitality, and temporary help industries.
Without Hurricane Sandy, the report may have shown north of 200,000 new jobs.
Prior to Wednesday, Wall Street expected Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report to show 93,000 net new jobs created in November, and no change in the U.S. Unemployment Rate. The ADP report did little to change those expectations.
Regardless, Friday’s release remains a market risk to Cornville buyers. The jobs report is closely watched because of its links to the broader domestic economy. When more workers are employed, more income is earned, and more money is spent.
This drives economic growth, of course, because consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy and when the economy is expected to expand, mortgage rates tend to rise.
If you are currently in the market for, or are undecided about a mortgage, therefore, consider locking your mortgage rate today. If Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report shows more jobs created than were estimated, mortgage rates are likely to rise — maybe even sharply.
Non-Farm Payrolls is released at 8:30 AM ET.
Another month, another good showing for the U.S. economy.
Mortgage rates are performing surprisingly well after Friday’s release of the October 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report beat Wall Street expectations, while also showing a giant revision to the previously-released job tallies of August and September.
171,000 net new jobs were created last month against calls for 125,000 and revisions for the two months prior totalled 84,000.
October also marked the 25th consecutive month of U.S. job growth — a period during which 3.8 million jobs have been reclaimed. This sum represents more than half of the 7.3 million jobs lost between 2008-2009.
Nationally, the Unemployment Rate rose by one-tenth of one percent last month to 7.9%. It may seem counter-intuitive to see unemployment rates rise even as job growth soars. However, it’s a sign of economic strength.
October’s rising Unemployment Rate is the result of more workers entering the U.S. workforce and actively looking for jobs, a manifestation of rising consumer confidence levels and optimism for the future.
Typically, mortgage rates in Arizona would worsen on a strong jobs report like this. This month, however, rates are improving. This is mostly the result of Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to create a drag on the U.S. economy with its $50 billion damage tag.
The storm has Wall Street looking past the strong jobs report, positioning itself for the next few months. Investors are moving into less risky assets until the uncertainty surrounding the storm’s effects subside. Mortgage-backed bonds are considered “safe” and are benefiting from this safe haven buying pattern.
For home owners and buyers in Cornville and nationwide, the shift is yielding an opportunity to lock mortgage rates at artifically-low levels. 30-year fixed rate mortgages remain well below 3.50% for borrowers willing to pay discount points, and home affordability is approaching an all-time high.
Home values are expected to rise through 2013 so consider this week’s low rates a gift. If you’re in a position to go to contract and/or lock a mortgage rate, you may want to take that step today.
Friday morning, the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report, more commonly called the “jobs report”.
Depending on how the jobs data reads, FHA and conforming mortgage rates may rise, or fall. This is because today’s mortgage market is closely tied to the U.S. economy, and the U.S. economy is closely tied to job growth.
Economists expect that employers have added 125,000 net new jobs to their payrolls in October 2012, up from September’s tally of 114,000 net new jobs. Jobs have been added to the economy over 24 consecutive months leading into Friday’s release, and approximately 4.7 million jobs have been created in the private sector since early-2010.
So, what does this mean for home buyers and refinancing households throughout Sedona ? It means that mortgage rates may get volatile beginning tomorrow morning.
Improving jobs numbers tend to push mortgage rates up, as it signals to investors that the U.S. economy is strengthening. If the actual jobs reports shows more than 125,000 net new jobs created, therefore, look for mortgage rates to rise.
Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report injects fear into the market, causing investors to purchase safer assets including U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed bonds. This moves mortgage rates lower.
Markets will also watch for the monthly Unemployment Rate. After falling to a 4-year low of 7.8 percent in September, economists anticipate that October’s unemployment rate will rise 0.1 percentage point to 7.9%.
The good news for rate shoppers is that mortgage rates remain low. Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey puts the 30-year fixed rate mortgage below 3.50% nationwide for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points. Furthermore, a forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that the 30-year fixed rate will remain below 4% for at least the next 8 months and low mortgage rates help to keep home payments low.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report at 8:30 AM ET Friday.
It’s a dangerous time for home buyers in Cottonwood to be without a locked mortgage rate.
Friday morning, at 8:30 AM ET, the government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report for September. More well-known as “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls data has the power to move mortgage rates up or down.
Unfortunately, ahead of the release, we can’t know which.
Last year, job growth more than doubled between August and September. If this year shows that same growth, Arizona mortgage rates are expected to rocket higher.
The connection between rising jobs and rising rates is a chain reaction-type link, and is often quite tight.
Jobs are a growth engine for the U.S. economy and mortgage rates are “made” based on future expectations for the U.S. economy. In general, when the economy is improving, it draws Wall Street into “risky” investments and away from “safe” ones.
Meanwhile, mortgage-backed bonds — especially those from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — are considered to be among the safest investment assets available. Therefore, as the size of the U.S. workforce swells, and economic projections increase, Wall Street tends to divest itself of its mortgage bond holdings which, in turn, increases the supply of mortgage-backed bonds for sale.
With more supply, all things equal, mortgage bond prices fall and this causes mortgage rates to rise.
This is why the September jobs report is important to today’s home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers. A better-than-expected tally will result in higher mortgage rates.
In August 2012, the government reported 96,000 net new jobs created — a sharp decrease from the month prior and a figure just shy of the metric’s six-month moving average. The Unemployment Rate fell one-tenth of one percent in August to 8.1%.
For September, economists expect to see 120,000 net new jobs created, and no change in the national Unemployment Rate.
Beginning as soon as next week, new, mandatory mortgage fees will push mortgage rates higher throughout Sedona and nationwide. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are raising their respective “guarantee fees”.
Guarantee fees are fees that mortgage-backed securities providers charge to lenders for mortgage-related services including the bundling, selling and reporting of mortgage-backed bonds.
Guarantee fees are also used to insure providers against credit-related losses.
As announced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, effective for all conforming loans delivered to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, beginning November 1, 2012, guarantee fees will be raised by an average of 10 basis points per loan.
Conforming mortgages already average close to 30 basis points in guarantee fee per loan.
This is the second time this year that the FHFA has raised guarantee fees, with the most recent increase translating into an approximate 50-basis point worsening in consumer mortgage pricing. That today’s home buyers and refinancing households will soon pay higher loan closing costs as a result.
To use a real-life example, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.55% nationwide this week for borrowers willing to pay an accompanying 0.7 discount points.
Once the new g-fee is implemented, the discount points change :
- Prior to guarantee fee increase : 3.55% with 0.7 discount points
- Post guarantee fee increase : 3.55% with 1.2 discount points
Post-increase, in other words, an identical Freddie Mac loan requires an extra half-point to get to closing, or $500 in additional closing costs per $100,000 borrowed.
These fees will soon appear on rate sheets, if they haven’t already.
Lenders know that it can take up to 60 days to lock a loan, approve it, fund it, then package it for delivery. Loans locked today, therefore, will likely be delivered to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac after the November 1, 2012 deadline. As a result, mortgage pricing will soon include the effects of the g-fees.
Perhaps as soon as this morning.
When the calendar flips to a new year, analysts and economists like to make predictions for the year ahead.
So, today, with the year half-complete, it’s an opportune time to check back to see how the experts’ predictions are faring (so far).
If you’ll remember, when 2011 closed, the housing market was showing its first signs of a reboot. Home sales were strong, home supplies were nearing bull market levels, and buyer activity was strong.
Homebuilder confidence was at its highest point in 2 years and single-family housing starts had made its biggest one-month gain since 2009.
In addition, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates had just broke below the 4 percent barrier and looked poised to stay there.
There was a lot about which to be optimistic in January 2012.
Yet, there were obstacles for the economy. The Eurozone’s sovereign debt issues remained in limbo, oil prices were spiking, and the Unemployment Rate remained high — three credible threats to growth.
At the time, analyst predictions for the economy occupied both ends of the spectrum, and everywhere in between.
As another example, American Banker said mortgage rates would rise in 2012. The LA Times, however, said just the opposite. And, the problem with these predictions is that each party can make such a sound defense of their respective positions that it’s easy to forget that a prediction is really just an opinion.
Nobody can know what the future holds.
A lot has changed since those predictions were made :
- Job growth slowed sharply after a strong Q1 2012
- Oil costs dropped rapidly beginning in early-May
- Spain and Italy have joined Greece as potential sovereign debt trouble-zones
Now, none of this was known — or expected — at the start of the year yet each has made a material change in the direction of both the housing and mortgage markets.
Today, home prices remain low and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates now average 3.56% nationwide. Home affordability is higher than it’s been at any time in recorded history and, at least for now, low downpayment mortgage products remain readily available.
The experts never saw it coming.
6 months from now, the markets may be different. We can’t know for sure. All we can know is that today is great time to be a home buyer in Cottonwood. Home prices and mortgage rates are favorable.
Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report. More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls is a monthly market-mover.
Depending on the strength — or weakness — of the data, mortgage rates will change. Perhaps sharply. Unfortunately, we can’t know in which direction.
If you’re actively shopping for a mortgage in Cottonwood , therefore, today may be a prudent day to lock a mortgage.
The job report’s connection to mortgage rates is straight-forward. As the number of U.S. citizens earning paychecks increases, reverberations are felt through the economy.
First, higher levels of income are tied to higher levels of consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy. More working citizens, therefore, builds a larger overall economic base.
Next, as the overall economic base grows, businesses produce and sell more goods, necessitating the hiring of additional personnel and the purchase of more raw materials — both positives for the economy.
And, lastly, as more paychecks are written, more taxes are paid to local, state and federal governments. These taxes are often used to fund projects and purchase goods and services which, in turn, grow the economy as well.
Tying it all together, the health of the U.S. economy is a major factor is setting day-to-day mortgage rates across AZ. This is why rate shoppers face risk with tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Between 2008 and 2009, the economy shed 7 million jobs. It has since recovered 3.9 million of them and, Friday, analysts expect to see another 100,000 jobs created in June. If the actual number of jobs created exceeds this estimate, look for mortgage rates to rise.
If the actual number of jobs created falls short of 100,000, mortgage rates may fall.
The government releases Non-Farm Payrolls data at 8:30 AM ET Friday.
For the second straight year, the jobs market looks to be slowing into the summer.
Last Friday, in its monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report for May 2012, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 69,000 net new jobs created, plus a one-tick rise in the national Unemployment Rate to 8.2%.
2012 is shaping up like 2011, it appears.
Last year, between May and August, the jobs market was decidedly worse as compared to the rest of the year, adding just 80,000 jobs on average per month as compared to 190,000 new jobs created on average during each of the other 8 months.
This year, a similar slowdown may be in store.
Although the May jobs report marks the 20th consecutive month during which the U.S. economy added new jobs, the reported figure fell well short of analyst expectations, which called for 150,000 net new jobs last month.
In addition, it was found that the previously-reported tallies for new jobs created in March and April were overstated by a total of forty-seven thousand jobs. This lowered the overall net new jobs created last month to 22,000.
Mortgage rates in Cornville are falling on the news.
Since the jobs report’s release, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have dropped below Freddie Mac’s reported 3.75% mortgage rate for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points plus closing costs; and, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage has dropped farther below 3.00%.
The weaker-than-expected data has moved Wall Street investors away from stock markets in favor of the relative safety of bond markets, a market which includes the one for mortgage-backed bonds. When mortgage-backed bonds are in demand like this, it helps to push down mortgage rates nationwide.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing.
Mortgage rates are expected to make new lows this week, in part, because of U.S. employment weakness. Should this year’s jobs market rebound like in 2011, though, look for mortgage rates to climb back shortly.