Susan Deierling, Assoc. Broker
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Realty Executives Northern Arizona
Tag Archives: Home Values
Home prices continue their upward climb.
Last week, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index showed home prices gaining 5.5 percent during the 12-month period ending November 2012, marking the largest one-year gain in home prices since May 2010.
The Case-Shiller Index measures changes in home prices by tracking same-home sales throughout 20 housing markets nationwide; and the change in sales price from sale-to-sale.
Detached, single-family residences are used in the Case-Shiller Index methodology and data is for closed purchase transactions only.
Between November 2011 and November 2012, home values rose in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets, with previously-hard hit areas such as Phoenix, Arizona leading the national price recovery.
The Phoenix market gained 1.4% for the month and was up 22.8% for the previous 12 months combined.
The top three monthly “gainers” for November 2012 were:
- Phoenix, Arizona : +1.4 percent
- San Francisco, California : +1.4 percent
- Minneapolis, Minnesota : +1.0 Percent
Only New York City posted annual home value depreciation. On average, homes lost -1.2% in value there.
It should be noted, however, that the Case-Shiller Index is an imperfect gauge of home values.
First, as mentioned, the index tracks changes in the detached, single-family housing market only. It specifically ignores sales of condominiums, co-ops and multi-unit homes.
Second, the Case-Shiller Index data set is limited to just 20 U.S. cities. There are more than 3,000 cities nationwide, which illustrates that the Case-Shiller sample set is limited.
And, lastly, the home sale price data used for the Case-Shiller Index is nearly two months behind its release date, rendering its conclusions somewhat out-of-date.
That said, the Case-Shiller Index joins the bevy of home value trackers pointing to home price growth over the last year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), for example, reported similar home price growth with its November 2012 House Price Index (HPI).
Home values rose 0.6 percent between October and November 2012 nationwide, the FHFA said, and climbed 5.6 percent during the 12 months ending November 2012.
Economists attribute increasing home prices to higher buyer demand, record-low mortgage rates and the gradual improvement of the U.S. economy.
The housing market continues to expand.
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which was released earlier this week, U.S. home prices rose in September for the sixth straight month, climbing 0.3% as compared to the month prior.
On an annual basis, values are higher by 3.0%.
The Case-Shiller Index findings are a composite reading of 20 U.S cities, 17 of which showed home price gains in September. Detroit and Washington D.C. showed slight declines, and New York City showed no change.
Leading the recovery, though, appears to be Phoenix, Arizona. The previously hard-hit city has seen home values gain 20.4% over the last 12 months. Also noteworthy is that Atlanta, Georgia reversed 26 consecutive months of home value declines in September, posting a +0.1% annual growth rate.
Average U.S. home prices have climbed back to mid-2003 levels.
On a month-over-month basis, value change by city varied. San Diego, California and Las Vegas, Nevada both posted gains of 1.4 percent from August, leading the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked cities. Minneapolis, Minnesota and Phoenix showed gains of 1.1 percent.
Los Angeles, California rounded out the Top Five, posting a 1% gain month-over-month.
Despite the index’s strong findings, however, we should remember to temper our expectations. The Case-Shiller Index — like most home value trackers — is wildly flawed. Buyers in Cornville should follow its gospel with caution.
First, the Case-Shiller Index tracks values for single-family homes only. As a result, it doesn’t account for multi-unit homes or for condos and co-ops. This is a big deal in cities such as Chicago and New York where high-rise units are common.
Another flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is that it’s 60 days delayed. It’s nearly December yet we’re still reviewing data from September. In housing market terms, September was a different market. Real-time data trumps data from last season.
That said, the long-term trends as shown by the Case-Shiller Index, are overwhelmingly positive. As a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson remarked, “It is safe to say we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market.”
Nationwide, mortgage rates are low in Arizona and home prices remain relatively low, too. This combination, plus rising rents, is pushing renters in some cities — including Sedona — toward first-time homeownership.
Buying your first home can be exciting, but you should also do your research to make sure that you ask the proper questions of the process, and make the best choices for yourself and your household.
For example, recommended questions for first-time buyers to ask home sellers include :
What major repairs have been made to your home?
Although standard disclosure forms are supposed to provide information regarding past damage and renovation to the property, there are occasionally repairs that are omitted or otherwise forgotten. Be proactive and ask pointed questions about the roof, the foundation, and the electrical system. Some home issue have a way of resurfacing many years later and it’s best to know in advance. •
To which school district does the home belong?
As a first-time homebuyer, you may or may not have school-aged children. However, in many areas, public school rankings positively (or negatively) affect home values. Ask your real estate agent for school district data. Consider asking the seller for feedback, too.
Is this a “distressed” property, and what does that mean to me?
For many home buyers, the allure of a foreclosed home or a home in short sale can be large. Prices are discounted as compared to comparable real estate — sometimes by as much as 20%. However, many distressed properties are sold as-is,” with little room for negotiation. This means that homes may be defective or, worse, uninhabitable. Ask your real estate agent for help with distressed homes and their suitability to your home buying needs.
After asking the above questions, and other questions, too, it’s important to remember that buying a home can be an emotional decision; and one that requires using your “brain” as much as your “heart”. Try to keep emotions in check so that you don’t overpay for a home that’s unsuitable, for example.
Home value rose to close out the summer, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, a national home-valuation tracker.
Nationwide, values rose 0.9% between July and August 2012 with 19 of 20 tracked markets showing improvement. Only one tracked city — Seattle, Washington — showed a decrease, falling just 0.1 percent.
On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved, led by Phoenix. Home values in the Arizona city are up 18.8 percent from August 2011. The next closest city in terms of home price gains is Detroit, Michigan at 7.6 percent
We should temper our excitement for the August Case-Shiller Index, however. Although it suggests an ongoing U.S. housing recovery, the methodology of the Case-Shiller Index is far-from-perfect. In fact, one could argue that the index is more effective for policy-makers than for actual buyers and sellers of real estate.
There are three reasons for this :
- The Case-Shiller Index tracks home prices of single-family homes only. Multi-unit homes are excluded.
- The Case-Shiller Index can be distorted by “discounted” home sales (e.g.; foreclosure, short sale).
- The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a two-month delay — data is hardly current.
Beyond the above three points, however, the Case-Shiller Index falls short in another area — it ignores the basic tenet of housing that “all real estate is local”. In using 20 cities to represent the entire United States, the Case-Shiller Index reduces more than 3,100 municipalities into a single “market”.
Even within its 20 tracked cities, the Case-Shiller Index fails short as a housing market barometer. This is because — even with cities — home values vary. Some Cornville zip codes perform better than others, for example, as do some streets within West Sedona. The Case-Shiller Index can’t capture markets with that level of detail.
National housing data helps in spotting broader trends of growth but provides very little for today’s active buyers and sellers of real estate who need “real-time” data. For that, talk to a local real estate agent.
There have been no shortage of “housing market” stories lately. After sinking through much of late-last decade, home values slowly stabilized into mid-2011. By October 2011, values appeared to have bottomed.
Today, nearly five-and-one-half years after the April 2007 housing market peak, home prices are finally showing their ability to rebound. Over the past 12 months, a bevy of housing market data highlights broad-based market growth.
For example, as compared to August 2011, Existing Home Sales are up 9.3 percent nationally; New Home Sales are up 27.7 percent nationally; and home inventories have slipped to multi-year lows in Cornville and throughout the country.
Furthermore, multiple home value trackers show home prices rising both regionally and nationwide.
Last week, the government’s Federal Housing Finance Agency released its Home Price Index (HPI) — a metric which tracks how home values change between sequential property sales. HPI showed home values up 3.7% nationally.
Another home valuation tracker — the S&P Case-Shiller Index — has shown home values to be rising, too.
As compared to one year ago, the private-sector metric puts home prices higher by 1.2 percent via its 20-city composite. 20 cities remains a small subset of the broader U.S. population, but, in looking for a trend, it’s clear that the trend is a positive one.
Some of the Case-Shiller Index highlights from its most recent report :
- All 20 tracked cities showed home price gains between June 2012 and July 2012
- The previously hard-hit city of Phoenix now leads the nation with a 16.6% annual gain
- Versus their respective lows, San Francisco and Detroit are up 20.4% and 19.7%
In addition, on a 12-month basis, only four cities are showing negative home value growth — Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, and New York City.
The Case-Shiller Index is a national index, though, and specifically does not report on valuation changes in specific U.S. cities and their neighborhoods. For local real estate data, make sure to speak with a local real estate agent instead.
Home prices continue to rise nationwide.
According to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, home prices rose 6.9% between the first and second quarter of 2012, the largest quarter-to-quarter gain since the home-value tracker’s 1987 inception and another signal that the housing market is in recovery.
The private-sector metric’s results are similar to what the government’s Home Price Index showed for June, too — values rising quickly. In addition, for the second straight month, each of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets showed month-to-month improvement.
June would have marked three straight months if not for Detroit’s value-setback in April.
The top performing markets in June, as tracked by the Case-Shiller Index were :
- Detroit, Michigan : 6.0 percent gain
- Minneapolis, Minnesota : 4.8 percent gain
- Chicago, Illinois : 4.6 percent gain
However, it should be noted that the Case-Shiller Index pulls from a limited sample set. It does not include condominiums or multi-unit homes in its findings, nor does it account for new construction. These exclusions make a material impact on the results of both Minneapolis and Chicago, as examples. Both cities feature a large concentration of condos.
Overall, though, the June data looks sound. Said a spokesman for the Case-Shiller Index, “The market may have finally turned around.”
Furthermore, home buyers in Village of Oak Creek and nationwide can corroborate what the Case-Shiller Index has uncovered. Falling home inventory and rising home demand have helped to move home prices higher in many U.S. markets.
Low mortgage rates make new homes affordable and rising rents are turning the Rent vs Buy equation on its head. In July, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, first-time home buyers accounted for 34% of all home resales. This trend is expected to continue into 2013.
As compared to one year ago, today’s home buyers have 8% more purchasing power and, with rising home prices, they’re going to need it.
With mortgage rates down to all-time lows, you can buy a lot more home for your money. Home affordability is at an all-time high.
According to last week’s Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage has dropped to 3.62% nationwide. This is down from 4.08% in March, and down from 4.60% from one year ago.
Mortgage rates are “on sale”.
Falling mortgage rates can make one of two changes to the way a Cornville home buyer looks at properties. They can either make a given home’s monthly housing payment that much more affordable to a buyer, or they can expand that buyer’s home purchasing power to a higher, maximum price point.
Since July 2011, that maximum price point increase has been significant.
Assuming a principal + interest payment of $1,000 per month and a 30-year loan term, a category that includes 30-year fixed rate mortgages and most adjustable-rate mortgages, here’s a maximum loan size comparison of the last 12 months :
- July 2011 : A payment of $1,000 affords a maximum loan size of $197,130
- July 2012 : A payment of $1,000 affords a maximum loan size of $219,409
With an increase in maximum loan size of more than $22,000 in just 12 months, it’s no wonder that multiple-offer situations are becoming more common — today’s buyers know that low home prices and low mortgage rates are combining to make home buying more affordable than at any time in recent history.
However, the buyer-friendly environment can’t last forever.
First, home prices have started to rise nationwide. Demand for homes has outpaced home supply in many U.S. markets and that leads home prices higher. Second, low mortgage rates can’t last forever.
A recovering economy will lift mortgage rates back above 4 percent, a scenario that will hit home affordability hard.
Home-buying conditions are optimal this season. If you’re in the market for a new home, talk to your real estate agent and loan officer about maximizing your home purchasing power.
Homes are going under contract at a quickening pace.
In May, for the second time in 3 months, the Pending Home Sales Index crossed the 100 barrier, stretching to 101.1. A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet sold.
Statistically, the Pending Home Sales Index reading is significant for two reasons.
First, the index’s reading is at its highest since April 2010. From this, we infer that today’s pace of home buying in Arizona and nationwide is approaching the “stimulated” levels of two years ago — but without the federal stimulus.
This is a positive signal for the housing market.
Second, because the Pending Home Sales Index is a relative index; and, because it was assigned a value of 100 upon its inception in 2001, readings higher than 100 imply that the housing market is performing better than it did during the index’s first year.
2001 happened to be a strong year for housing. 2012, it seems, is shaping up to be a better one.
And, there’s another reason why the Pending Home Sales Index matters so much to buyer and sellers of Cottonwood — the Pending Home Sales Index is among the few “forward-looking” housing market indicators.
Rather than report on how the housing market looked 30-60 days in the past, as the Case-Shiller Index does; or the Existing Home Sales report, the Pending Home Sales Index looks 30-60 days to the future.
80% of homes under contract sell within 2 months so, as the Pending Home Sales Index goes, so goes housing. Based on May’s data, therefore, we can assume that home sale figures will rise through the summer.
If you’re shopping for homes right now, consider going under contract while the market remains somewhat soft. Mortgage rates are low and so are home prices. It makes for good home-buying conditions.
Home builders anticipate growth in the market for newly-built, single-family homes.
For June 2012, the National Association of Homebuilders reports its monthly Housing Market Index at 29 — an increase of more than 100% from one year ago and the highest HMI value since May 2007.
When the Housing Market Index reads 50 or better, it’s meant to indicate favorable conditions for builders in the single-family, new-construction market. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable conditions for builders.
The index has not been above 50 since April 2006.
The NAHB Housing Market Index is not a “single survey” — it’s a composite. Three separate surveys are sent by the trade association to its members and roughly 400 builders respond. The NAHB’s survey questions query builders on their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and, their current levels of buyer “foot traffic”.
The results are then compiled into the NAHB Housing Market Index.
In June, home builders provided mixed replies :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 32 (+2 from May)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 34 (Unchanged from May)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 23 (Unchanged from May)
Of particular interest to today’s new construction buyers is that builders are reporting higher levels of single-family sales, and expect their sales volume to increase over the next six months. This expectation is rooted in housing market momentum and low mortgage rates.
Never in recorded history have homes been as affordable as they are today and home buyers are taking notice. Foot traffic through builder models remains strong and is at its highest pace in more than 5 years.
When demand for homes outweighs the supply of homes, home prices rise. If builder expectations are met, therefore, buyers in Cottonwood should expect new home prices to rise in 2012’s second half.
Planning to buy new construction this year or next? Consider moving up your time frame.
Nationwide, the U.S. housing market is showing signs of recovery. Home prices are rising as demand for homes outweighs existing home supply in many metropolitan regions.
As is customary in real estate, though, the degrees to which home values change vary by area.
In some U.S. markets, the housing recovery is outpacing the national average. In other markets, it lags. In an effort to measure the changes, CNNMoney has named the 10 U.S. housing markets in which home prices may rise the fastest.
The list is stuffed with small- to mid-size cities, most of which have experienced huge price drops since the housing market’s peak in 2007. The cities are gems, however, for the right type of home buyer. This may include real estate investors, first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and even parents with children in need of “college housing”.
As listed by CNNMoney, the 10 cities in which home values are rising fastest are :
- Madera, CA (Down 53.1% from peak; Forecast 21.5% gain through 2013)
- Medford, OR (Down 37.1% from peak; Forecast 20.1% gain through 2013)
- Yuma, AZ (Down 37.4% from peak; Forecast 16.7% gain through 2013)
- Corvallis, OR (Down 11.4% from peak; Forecast 13.2% gain through 2013)
- Eugene, OR (Down 21.2% from peak; Forecast 12.4% gain through 2013)
- Olympia, WA (Down 26.3% from peak; Forecast 11.3% gain through 2013)
- Boise, ID (Down 36.9% from peak; Forecast 11.0% gain through 2013)
- Billings, MT (Down 3.0% from peak; Forecast 10.1% gain through 2013)
- Lewiston, ID (Down 7.5% from peak; Forecast 10.0% gain through 2013)
- Sante Fe, NM (Down 17.1% from peak; Forecast 10.0% gain through 2013)
These 10 cities are more diverse in their make-up than their geography. All ten can be found in the western half of the United States. However, whereas some cities are expected to excel as a result of proximity of universities — Eugene and Corvallis, for example — others are expected to excel for economic reasons.
This includes cities such as Yuma, which is in a Foreign Trade Zone.
Real estate remains a local market, though, and even within these ten cities, there will exist neighborhoods in which growth exceed national averages, and areas in which growth falls behind.
For accurate, real-time real estate data in Sedona , be sure to speak with a real estate professional.